There are just three days now — Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday —before the beginning of the papal conclave on Wednesday, May 7.
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In these days, I have glimpsed, and sometimes greeted, several cardinals in the streets of Rome — for example, English Cardinals Timothy Radcliffe and Arthur Roche, American Cardinals Robert McElroy and Donald Wuerl, Cardinal Gerhard Mueller from Germany and Cardinal Robert Sarah from Guinea, West Africa.
But only today, an hour ago, did I receive an insight from a reliable source regarding the upcoming conclave.
The insight: the Italians are not united.
And this lack of unity is preventing an early consensus on a candidate.
And this could throw the conclave wide open. —RM
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More background
The leading candidates among the Italians are said to be Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican Secretary of State under Pope Francis, 70, Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, 69, the Archbishop of Bologna and the special envoy of Pope Francis to try to assist a process of peace with regard to the Ukraine war, and, in recent hours, Cardinal Mario Grech, 68, who is from Malta, which is off the coast of Sicily to the south of Italy, and who was the Secretary General of the Synod under Pope Francis, who died less than two weeks ago, on April 21.
Five days ago, chatting with other journalists (some of them priests) one said to me, when I pressed him for an opinion:
“Parolin is the best choice — and many cardinals agree. He already has 50 votes prepared to back him. And they are right to. He would be a good choice. He has been the Secretary of State for 12 years. He already knows how the Vatican runs, and how its government could be improved. And personally, he is balanced, fair, and steady. He could guide the barque of Peter with calm steadiness. I think he would be an excellent Pope. Parolin.”
But hardly were those words uttered than another journalist contradicted him, saying:
“No, Cardinal Zuppi is the better choice. He has nearly all of the good qualities of Parolin, but he has much more pastoral experience. He was, in fact, a parish priest in Rome, in Trastevere, at the Church of Santa Maria in Trastevere, and young people flocked around him. And as Archbishop of Bologna, he has also done well. He has the diplomatic skill that distinguishes Parolin. He was the favorite of Pope Francis.”
And this seems true, as American Vaticanist John Allen notes in one of his very helpful, daily “papabile” profiles, on Zuppi, where he writes: “Short of pointing a finger and publicly shouting, “This is my beloved son, upon whom my favor rests,” it’s difficult to think of anything else a pontiff might do to signal that someone has his trust.
And then, by a still opaque operation, a press report appeared that now has been denounced as false by the Vatican Press Office Director, Dr. Matteo Bruni, that Cardinal Parolin had experienced a “health crisis” the day before yesterday. This seems like an intentional attack from outside the Conclave to lessen Parolin’s chances of gathering a consensus, and thus, of destabilizing the Conclave. (I myself, in a podcast, repeated the “rumor” that Parolin had experienced some sort of health issue, and now feel that I was taken in by “disinformation,” or at least, inadequately sourced information. I apologize to all for this.)
John Allen, once again, as so often, has a thoughtful piece on this matter, here.
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This means that the cardinals from other countries around the world are not being given a clear signal as to who the Italians themselves judge who would be the most effective and successful Pope.
Since the Vatican is in Rome, and since Rome is the capital of Italy, and since the Bishop of Rome becomes the Pope precisely because he is the Bishop of Rome, it has long seemed fitting that the Italians should have a type of “position of honor” in determining who the bishop of their capital city ought to be.
Of course, Rome is precisely that city which also has a universal vocation, as the chief city of the world-spanning Roman Empire and as the chief city of western Christendom for many centuries since the fall of Rome, more than 1,500 years ago.
The Church, both doctrinally and culturally, has a “universalizing” mission, commissioned by Christ to preach the Gospel to “the ends of the earth,” and in keeping with this “universalizing” mission, it is not unfitting to have a bishop of the city who is from the ends of the earth — and three Popes in a row have been from outside Italy, John Paul II from Poland (1978-2005), Benedict XVI from Germany (2005-2013), and Francis from Argentina (2013-2025).
Thus, there is an intrinsic dynamic that is reaching a high tide, that seeks to make the Pope of Rome the truly international leader of the global, universal Church.
This means: a candidate from Africa, where the Church is growing, or from Asia, where half of the world’s population lives…
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I just received this email regarding my letter of this morning on Cardinal Gugerotti’s homily yesterday:
Dear Robert,
I appreciate what you write very often, but I am a bit surprised by your enthusiasm for Gugerotti. He is a very likely candidate that no one is discussing. His ties to Silvestrini raise eyebrows in certain circles in Rome. He is known as the “Plan B” candidate if Parolin fails, but there are other voices about Betori coming to the forefront now. It is all a bit unpredictable.
in Domino,
(signed)
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And, this letter:
Thank you, Robert. I am praying that the wisdom of the Holy Spirit prevails with all of the ordained, and with all of the advisors having to do with the Conclave.
God bless you and yours ever so dearly, Claudia P.
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And this one, about the case of Cardinal Angelo Becciu, condemned in an unusual and likely unjust Vatican trial, who has withdrawn his claim to have the right to vote, after being persuaded that that was the will of Pope Francis:
Bob,
There are so many people who are unjustly accused of wrongful behavior, and such an assault destroys people. This is a great moral issue of our era. The internet convicts instantly.
His case should be re-examined.
(signed)
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And this one, for all who may enjoy a full-scale survey, though you must remember, this is just one man’s opinion(!):
So here’s my guess from several years of reading: you can count out any Jesuit ( a la Francis), North American, or Latin American (a la Francis) for the obvious reasons. If any North American had a shot it would be Cardinal Sean O’Malley, who the Italians love, but he’s too old.
Here goes on the so called Papabile:
1) Sarah. Loved by us all but he’s too old. He turns 80 in June. The Cardinals aren’t gonna elect someone and then turn right around and maybe you have to ask someone again in one to five years. This was what happened with John Paul l
2) Parolin: he had some serious health issues recently. Also, he’s very much like Francis except better organized. I don’t think any Francis clone will get elected, even if hes Francis-lite
3) Tagle. the so-called Asian Francis. He has no chance. He’s just like Francis. He often break dances and cries in public. I don’t think most of the Cardinals go for any of that.
4) Zuppi. The bike riding, Italian, Francis clone.
He’s way too liberal and he allowed same-sex marriage in the church hes responsible for. Powerful St Egidio community pushing for him. I’d say he’s got very little chance.
5) Aveline. The French version of Francis. He looks like Pope John XXlll but that’s about as close as he’s ever gonna get to the papal throne.
6) Erdo. Patriarch of Hungary and former president of the European council of bishops. He speaks fluent Italian, he’s a Canon lawyer. He’s moderate and he well may get the nod by the conclave. Look out for a possible Pope Erdo.
7) Pizzaballa. The Latin patriarch of Jerusalem. He was born and raised in Italy so a lot of people like that. He’s moderate he’s well respected. He got the Latin patriarchate out of $100 million in debt after arriving there. The conclave will like that because the Vatican is now bankrupt. It can’t even pay its employees retirement benefits, which are about $1 billion.He’s got a good chance at the papal throne with the one exception of being 59. That means he’d have a long pontificate. Some will love that. Some will be nervous about that. Look out for a possible Pope, Pizzaballa . He speaks fluent Italian, which is also an advantage.
8) Ranjith. From Sri Laka. Moderate conservative. He might have a shot. He’s probably a second or third tier candidate.
9) Ambongo. African, which might be in his favor, although I don’t think people are gonna vote based on passports. They’re gonna vote now based on ideology and strength. He stood up to Francis on the same sex Blessings, but on other issues he’s very mixed and off. doubt he’s gonna get the nod. Hes kooky
10) Eijk from Netherlands and Arborelius from Sweden. I lump them together because they’re similar. They’re both moderate and both good candidates. I think, they are second or third tier candidates that will probably be considered once the conclave gets a little stalemated. One of them could be a surprise win
11) Bo. From Myanamar. He’s conservative on some things and maybe liberal on others. He’s just not well known enough by the Cardinals to get elected.
12) Burke. Great guy. Way too conservative, like Sarah, to be elected. He’s got no chance.
13) Prevost. From the Dicastery for Bishop’s. Another American. He’s got no chance because of that
14) Bagnasco. Italian. Might’ve been a good choice, but he’s aged out.
15) Brislin. The Uber liberal South African. He’s got no chance.
16) Mueller. Well known by everybody. Probably too conservative for a chunk of people probably has a little chance to be pope. He’d be a fabulous pick though.
16) Filoni. The Italian. Might’ve been a decent choice, but he’s aged out too like Sarah.
17) Sturla. From Uruguay. Conservative. A good choice. But he’s Latin American so he’s not gonna get elected due to Francis
18) Mendonca. Portuguese. Liberal. He won’t get elected because he’s Latin American.
Basically, I think initially the votes will be split in early balloting for the moderate-liberal Parolin, and the conservative Sarah. When they see that neither can gather the votes, it’ll drop down to a second or third tier candidate.
Remember that even the progressives who liked Pope Francis were tired of all the confusion and realized they’re not gonna get their liberal agenda across. They had one chance. It was Francis. And he never came through.
My guess is:
1) Erdo
2) Pizzaballa
3) Parolin
4) a dark horse surprise candidate of the conclave gets totally locked.
—Jack C.
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