Letter #36, 2024, Thursday, October 10: Zelensky in Rome
Pope Francis is scheduled to meet tomorrow morning at 9 am with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky.
The meeting comes less than 4 weeks before the US election on November 5, an election that could signal a change in US policy regarding the war in Ukraine.
It also comes a day and half after Zelensky, in Dubrovnik, Croatia, on October 10 sought military support from several Balkan countries.
And, it comes the day before a scheduled October 12 meeting with US President Joseph Biden in Germany, at an American air base — but it has just been announced that that meeting in Germany has been canceled, as Biden is not leaving the United States “due to Hurricane Milton.”
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A Pivotal Turning Point
This flurry of meetings and non-meetings suggest that the war in Ukraine is at a pivotal point.
The direction events take from here could depends on decisions taken in these days — with the US elections of November 5 looming ever closer.
On the one had, the path opens toward some type of a settlement, and a ceasefire.
On the other hand, the path open to… a further escalation, including the possibility of a full-scale war between Russia and the entire West, with the possible use of nuclear and biological weapons.
Hence, the significance of tomorrow’s conversation between Pope Francis and Zelensky.
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Whispered scenarios
A detailed and therefore useful analysis of the present crisis is offered by a writer who calls himself Simplicius, at his substack site, Simplicius the Thinker (link).
Simplicius argues that Russian forces, after months of brutal fighting, are on the verge of breaking through Ukrainian lines along the “line of contact” between Donbass and the rest of Ukraine.
This military threat is prompting the Ukrainians, and their supporters in the West, to weigh a choice between two paths:
1) seek an agreement now, before the breakthrough; or
2) attack Russia more intensively and effectively deep inside Russia, but in so doing, take the war to a new level, threatening to initiate a vast expansion of the conflict.
One path leaads to a ceasefire, as unsatisfactory as it may be, for both sides; the other path, to a much larger conflict.
Simplicius argues that the fact that various Western media are now seemingly airing various scenarios of a possible “compromise settlement” shows that the Western backers of Ukraine are seeing this situation as very very serious indeed.
“Behind the scenes, all Ukraine’s Western allies now understand that it’s impossible to compete with Russia and the only way they can salvage some of their blood-investment is by freezing the conflict under the false promise that Ukraine can regain its lost territories at some future date, after a few years of rebuilding,” Simplicius writes.
Simplicius then offers an example of the type of Western press article which supports this theory, pointing to an October 8 article entitled “Ukraine’s Shifting War Aims” (link).
That article begins this way:
“Ukraine is going into its third winter of war with the mood darker than ever. In the east, its troops are losing ground to the grinding advance of their Russian adversaries — albeit at vast cost to Moscow’s forces. With half its power generation shattered, Ukrainians face spending hours a day without light or heat in the coldest months. In Washington and some western capitals, meanwhile — and in the corridors of Kyiv — the mood is shifting: from a determination that the war can end only with Russia’s army driven from Ukraine, to the reluctant recognition that a negotiated settlement that leaves the bulk of the country intact may be the best hope…”
And Simplicius synthesizes:
“Key summary:
“1) Kiev is holding closed talks on a peace deal that would see Russia retain control over Ukrainian territories it controls but not recognize its sovereignty over them.
“2) Behind closed doors, there is talk of a deal in which Russia controls about 1/5 of Ukraine, although Russian sovereignty is not recognized — while the rest of the country is allowed to join NATO or receive equivalent security guarantees.”
And he sums up: “The [Financial Times] article concludes with the groping sentiment that Russia can only be forced into these demands if Russia feels the costs of the war have become too high. This could not be a more preposterously frivolous idea. Russia has shown nothing other than iron-clad determination for total victory, with its economy going to a war-footing, particularly with next year’s mass defense spending surges, and its population—which includes previously frayed elites—increasingly patriotic. Any inconvenient ‘thorn’ Ukraine manages to rib into Russia’s side only amplifies Russia’s resoluteness and solidarity. There is no possible event that can even conceivably cause Russia to decide ‘enough is enough, we must back down.’ In this game of Chicken, the West will have to veer first or simply accept that nukes will fly at the height of the escalation ladder.”
So the context of the Pope’s meeting tomorrow with Zelensky is that of a war which has been brutal and bloody for two and a half years, but which could become bloodier still…
Let us hope some path toward peace may yet be found.
—RM
Here is a report today from Barrons, the financial news magazine:
Pope To Meet Ukraine’s Zelensky At Vatican Friday (link)
Pope Francis will meet Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday at the Vatican, officials said, while media reported the Ukrainian leader would also meet Italy’s prime minister in Rome.
A calendar event sent by the Vatican to the media indicated a half-hour meeting between the Pope and Zelensky beginning at 9:30 am (0730 GMT) on Friday at the Vatican.
Italian media reported that Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni would be meeting with the Ukrainian president Thursday evening, although nothing has been officially confirmed.
Zelensky was in Croatia on Wednesday at a summit with Balkan leaders to seek international military support.
He had been due to attend an international meeting on Ukraine at a US air base in Germany on Saturday.
But that meeting of more than 50 countries was pushed back Wednesday after President Joe Biden called off a planned state visit to Germany and Angola due to Hurricane Milton.
And here is a Vatican News report from today, with an interview with the leader of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church, Archbishop Sviatoslav Shevchuk, who met with Pope Francis today
Major Archbishop Shevchuk: ‘Pope remains close to suffering Ukrainians’ (link)
By Salvatore Cernuzio and Lisa Zengarini
Vatican News, October 10, 2024
Pope Francis on Thursday received in audience Major Archbishop Sviatoslav Shevchuk.
The head of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church is in Rome for the Synod on Synodality, where he is bringing the voice of the suffering Ukrainian people and of all Eastern Churches.
The papal audience took place on the eve of Pope Francis’ meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on October 11.
Speaking to Vatican News’ Salvatore Cernuzio on the sidelines of the assembly, the Major Archbishop of Kyiv-Halyč described the meeting with the Pope “as a spiritual moment of dialogue and reflection.”
Concern for the most vulnerable in the war
“I wanted to inform the Holy Father about the situation in Ukraine, the disaster of the war we are living through, and the challenges we will face as winter approaches,” he explained. “He is truly concerned for the civilian population, for what is happening in Ukraine, and for the most vulnerable who are the ones suffering the most.”
Major Archbishop Shevchuk also explained that he informed Pope Francis about the life of the Ukrainian Church in these circumstances and, in particular, about the recent Synod of the Greek Catholic Bishops, which focused on the theme of evangelization and on how to proclaim the Word of God and bring its message of hope to desperate people.
He said he handed him a Pastoral Letter on war and just peace, summarizing fruits of the Synod and reflecting on the current situation in Ukraine.
Pope’s gratitude for the “heroic” service of the Church
“Pope Francis,” the Archbishop Major continued, “thanked me for the heroic service of our Church, bishops, and priests and assured me of his prayers and blessings.”
For his part, the head of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church reiterated his gratitude to Pope Francis “for his many interventions and for always remembering ‘martyred’ Ukraine.”
He also thanked him for mediating the release of ten Ukrainian civilians, including the Redemptorist priests Ivan Haleta and Bohdan Levytskyy arrested by the Russians in November 2022.
Their release was part of an exchange of Russian and Ukrainian prisoners of war mediated by the Holy See, and prompted President Zelensky, among others, to thank the Holy See for “the efforts” made “to bring these people home.”
President Zelensky’s visit
Commenting on Pope Francis’ audience with the Ukrainian President on Friday, Archbishop Shevchuk said President Zelensky has a great respect for the Holy Father, whom he conders to be a “global moral voice and authority.”
“Sharing Ukraine’s pains and having the support of the Pope and the Holy See for our country and our suffering people is vital for us,” he said.
This will be President Zelensky’s third visit to the Vatican and his fourth in-person meeting with Pope Francis, which includes the private bilateral meeting held in June on the sidelines of the G7 in Puglia
A plea for solidarity with the Ukrainian people
Before returning to the Synod’s discussions, Major Archbishop Shevchuk launched an impassioned appeal to the international community to support the Ukrainian people with prayer and material aid.
“We ask for your solidarity and prayers. Nearly 6 million Ukrainians will face a food crisis this winter. We need to feed the hungry,” he said, adding that “we must also offer our warmth and attention to people who will suffer cold.”
[End, Vatican News text]
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