Top Italian Vaticanist Andrea Gagliarducci, who works for the Rome office of EWTN and has his own weekly blog called Monday Vatican. Today he published a thoughtful guide to the various candidates in the upcoming papal conclave, which begins today, May 7…
Letter #38, 2025, Wednesday, May 7: Gagliarducci gives the names of the present “front-runners”
This afternoon, Wednesday, May 7, the papal conclave begins.
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Italian Vaticanist Andrea Gagliarducci, who writes for EWTN, the American Catholic TV network, is one of the most well-informed Vatican reporters in the world.
Today he wrote an excellent overview of who are the present “front-runners” in this upcoming Conclave (link).
–RM
Conclave, the papabili: Parolin in the lead, but there are five favorites. The second line grows: from Prevost to Aveline, all the names
The former Secretary of State starts as the favorite, but many votes could converge on Pizzaballa, Prevost, Romero or Aveline. The variable of the “silent majority”
by Andrea Gagliarducci
Wednesday 7 May 2025
There is a silent majority at the Conclave, which has not expressed itself in the small pressure groups that have formed, has not had a voice in the media and is still looking for its dimension.
It is the majority of cardinals who between Asia, Africa and Oceania put together – red hat more, red hat less – about 70 votes.
Not enough to elect a Pope, where the quorum, the highest in history, is set at 89 cardinals. Enough, however, to express a point of view that cannot go unheard.
Where will this silent majority go?
On the eve of the Conclave, the names that are mentioned almost always remain the same, with some new entries and some consolidated profiles.
Despite the attacks of the “friendly fire” of the Bergoglians, as well as the reservations expressed (for example, by the French cardinal Philippe Barbarin) on his management of the Secretariat of State, Cardinal Pietro Parolin still starts as the favorite.
If nothing else, many votes will converge on him in the first vote, with diplomats in the front line (a group that includes cardinals Zenari, Filoni, Mamberti, Koovakad).
The idea of a Pope who knows the problems of the people leads to two profiles.
One is Cardinal Cristobal Lopez Romero, Archbishop of Rabat in Morocco, a Spanish Salesian missionary whose charisma has not failed to attract the attention of the cardinals.
The second is Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, appreciated by the cardinals for his balance despite his young age (he is only 60 years old [Note: he turned 60 on April 21, the day after Easter, the day Pope Francis died]) and consecrated in the role of possible papabile by a barrage of negative rumors about him.
Those who are not looking for a Francis II, but rather a second Francis, are aiming for Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline, Archbishop of Marseille, whose political intelligence they also appreciate.
Aveline has a limitation: he does not speak fluent Italian.
While Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, an American and missionary bishop in Peru, an Augustinian, a man of the three worlds who could represent a necessary middle ground, does.
These are, at the moment, the five cardinals in the front line, those who could collect the most votes in the first round of voting.
[Note: 1) Parolin, 2) Lopez Romero, 3) Pizzaballa, 4) Aveline, 5) Prevost]
But then we will also have to look elsewhere.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, archbishop of Bologna, seems to be in the second line, who has not been mentioned among the papabili for a while, but who could suddenly re-emerge in the end, especially if the silent majority of African votes were to converge on him.
The silent majority of Asian votes could instead give a chance to Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, Filipino and pro-prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization under Pope Francis, who has the good traits of a pastor and who arouses a lot of sympathy.
Cardinal Péter Erdő, archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, appeared to be the flagship candidate of the conservative front.
He could rather be the candidate of the “great center”, appreciated both for the work done at the International Eucharistic Congress in Budapest in 2021, which made him known to the entire Catholic world, and for his expertise as an expert in canon law, a topic that has become central in recent discussions.
A name that has been little mentioned, but who could gain sudden sympathy, is that of Ángel Fernandez Artime, pro-prefect of the Dicastery for Religious and former Rector Major of the Salesians.
He has toured the five continents as a Salesian, he is Spanish, he is considered a friend of the Pope but he would also bring an institutional trait. At least, this is what is said about him in restricted circles.
Finally, in the second line we have an African cardinal who is for now above all a kingmaker: Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo, Archbishop of Kinshasa.
The African cardinals look to him with confidence, and he would be able to channel votes.
And it could do so, after all, if it reached a stalemate.
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