How Pope Leo Got Elected

Cardinals voted for a man, not an ideology

A Jumbotron erected in St. Peter’s Square displays events in the Sistine Chapel during the conclave which elected Pope Leo XIV (Galazka photo)

By Phil Lawler (Catholic World News)

For most of us, the election of Cardinal Prevost was a surprise. His name was not terribly familiar; he was not prominently listed among the papabili published before the conclave by self-appointed experts. (The College of Cardinals Report, probably the most reliable reference for this papal election, did not list him among the dozen likeliest candidates.) Yet he was chosen quickly.

Most Vatican-watchers had expected a longer conclave. There was no acknowledged front-runner. Most journalists agreed that Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican Secretary of State, was the only prelate who might have had a chance for an early victory. But Cardinal Parolin carried some baggage into the conclave. He was the principal author of an unpopular Vatican pact with Beijing; he was at least tangentially involved in the financial scandals within the Secretariat of State; he had virtually no experience as a pastor. Beyond him lay a crowded field of possible candidates.

It seemed likely that several ballots would be needed before the cardinals saw a clear choice. The fact that Cardinal Prevost won (at least) a two-thirds majority on only the fourth ballot suggests that the cardinal-electors had turned their attention toward him almost immediately after the voting began. How did that happen?

One explanation — generally overlooked in media coverage — is that while Cardinal Prevost was not well known to the world at large, he was well known to the College of Cardinals. As prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops he was involved in the appointments of new bishops worldwide. Equally important, he served on several other dicasteries, alongside other members of the College. In an instructive analysis for Crisis, Giovanni Sadewo shows that after a year as prefect in the Roman Curia, Cardinal Prevost had served alongside two-thirds of all the world’s cardinals, on one Vatican panel or another.

No other Vatican official matched that level of interaction with the cardinals of the Roman Curia. Even Cardinal Parolin, whose office coordinated the Curia, shared assignments with only 53% of the other cardinals.

Why was Cardinal Prevost serving on so many dicasteries? Because Pope Francis kept appointing him. That fact in itself is remarkable, because Cardinal Prevost—who had known Pope Francis since his days in Argentina—revealed: “I won’t say why, but let’s just say that in all the meetings with Cardinal Bergoglio, we didn’t always get along.” They did not see eye-to-eye, it seems, but the late Pope respected Cardinal Prevost, and saw him as a valuable voice in the Roman Curia. Evidently other cardinals had reached the same judgment.

Going into the conclave, some cardinals wanted to ensure that the policies of Pope Francis would be continued. Others wanted to see those policies promptly reversed. Within the first few ballots, both groups realized that they could not manage a two-thirds majority—either for a Francis II or for an anti-Francis.

So they looked instead for a prelate who would treat them fairly, and govern the Church wisely, and perhaps restore their fractured unity. Apparently they looked in the same direction.

Journalists accustomed to political campaigns may prefer to look for more arcane explanations: for the Southern voting bloc and the powerful kingmaker and the top-secret meeting.

But when they cast their ballots, the cardinal-electors take another solemn oath, testifying that they are voting for the man they consider best suited to be Peter’s Successor.

That is the simple straightforward explanation of how Cardinal Prevost became Leo XIV.